While Tom Tugendhat won the public opinion poll after last night’s debate, this is a race that will be decided by Tory members – and they seem to have a new winner (for now at least). A new ConservativeHome poll has seen Penny Mordaunt knocked off the top spot by Kemi Badenoch – who now has a double-digit lead. In a rapidly-moving contest, it’s quite significant.
‘Mordaunt’s ship is becalmed,’ says Paul Goodman in the ConHome analysis. She led Badenoch by 46 per cent to 40 per cent in an either/or poll last Tuesday. But in this different poll (with all five candidates) she’s on just 18 per cent, with Liz Truss second at 21 per cent and Badenoch quite clearly ahead on 31 per cent.
The bookmakers are still betting that Tory MPs will not let Badenoch get to the final two (below) and you can certainly see why. At the MPs’ voting stage, much is decided on backroom deals and horse-trading – neither of which are Badenoch’s speciality.
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