Paper dragons: is Chinese science all it’s cracked up to be?

At the tail end of last year, Chinese scientists claimed they had achieved something world-changing. In a widely circulated paper, the researchers said they had developed an algorithm run on a quantum computer that is able to break the best encryption that exists today.

Modern encryption runs on mathematical problems which take the most powerful computers tens of thousands of years to crack. It has long been theoretically possible that quantum computers could one day be capable of cracking these codes in a practical timescale. If the Chinese claim is correct, then Xi Jinping now possesses a terrifying assault weapon in cyber warfare. 

The paper, however, was greeted with derision by many in the West. ‘This is one of the most actively misleading quantum computing papers I’ve seen in 25 years,’ said Scott Aaronson of the University of Texas, ‘and I’ve seen many.’ He wasn’t alone. ‘Can’t possibly work,’ added Steve Brierley of the quantum software company Riverlane. 

If the Chinese really have created this quantum computing algorithm, the threat to the West is existential. But if the claim is hollow, as is likely, then it’s only the latest example of a Chinese brag that turns out to be little more than a paper dragon.

For years, the image of China in the West has been one of a great imitator: it can copy what we do, goes the argument, and it can do it cheaper – occasionally better. But it’s no great innovator. Chinese military aircraft, for instance, look suspiciously like copies of American planes and are unlikely to outperform their western equivalents. The US, in fact, says Chinese nationals have stolen sensitive military documents for F-22 and F-35 planes. Chinese civilian cars, too, are almost exactly like German, American and British equivalents; if you want a cheap Mercedes G-Class, get yourself a BAIC BJ80, or a Land Wind if you’re after a Range Rover.