Our economy fell back into recession

Or at least technically-speaking it did. The figures released this morning suggest that the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year, which is the second quarter of shrinkage in a row after last winter’s 0.3 per cent fall. The numbers are tiny, but the politics is huge. It’s a double dip — and you can expect Ed Miliband to mention that fact again and again in PMQs later, with dread accompaniment from Ed Balls and his hand gestures.

There are some caveats, of course. This is only a preliminary estimate, so the Office for National Statistics could revise it upwards at some point. It’s also the slightest of slight downturns. But there isn’t the sort of caveat that George Osborne might have wanted: there are no special reasons for this, such as snow or riots or fuel protests. Unless you count the eurocrisis, of course — which the Chancellor is bound to do.