Osborne’s gambles

There is now a general acceptance that the Tories’ 2015 election manifesto will contain a pledge, dare one say a cast-iron guarantee, that voters will be offered a referendum on Britain’s relationship with the EU. James first revealed this in his magazine column a few weeks ago. The aim is to see off the surge from UKIP, prevent Labour from opportunistically seeking Eurosceptic ground, and to counter Boris Johnson’s popular adoption of the People’s Pledge.

Since then it has been taken as read that George Osborne is responsible for this gambit, which is reasonable given that he is the Tories’ chief strategist, and a likely contender in a future leadership bid. Today, Paul Goodman, a former colleague of Osborne, has expanded on a point that he has been making for some time. He writes in today’s Financial Times that this is Osborne’s ‘greatest gamble yet’, because Europe is an issue with which the Tories have an unhappy past, and because Britain’s relationship with the continent is economically vital.