Osborne has a few cards up his sleeve, but no aces

In some ways, George Osborne will always be haunted by his 2007 Tory conference speech. That speech and the reaction to his commitment to raise all estates worth less than £1 million out of inheritance tax contributed to Gordon Brown not calling an early election. It has a claim to be one of the most important speeches in modern British politics — it is certainly the one that saved the Cameron project. But it has also created an expectation that Osborne has a set of aces up his sleeve every time he stands up to give a big speech.

Tomorrow’s speech won’t see the Chancellor pull out any unexpected trumps. Osborne’s team is sanguine that the headlines of the evening bulletins on Tuesday and Wednesday’s front pages will be dominated by the OBR’s forecasts and so most of the big announcements are already out there. I’m sure, though, that the Chancellor will have kept a few things back for tomorrow to sweeten the pill and to emphasise his theme that he’s doing what he can to help hard pressed families.   

What we will see tomorrow is a conscious effort by the Coalition, and particularly the Tory half, to stress that the autumn statement is part of an ongoing process; the constant work of keeping Britain out of the sovereign debt spiral that more and more European countries are being dragged into. The fact that the Chancellor is heading to Brussels as soon as he has sat down also emphasises the headwind that the British economy is running into as it tries to move forward.

What will matter far more than the Autumn statement is how the coalition handles the break-up of the Euro — an event that is looking more likely by the day. That will be the moment at which Osborne will face another 2007-style, decisive moment.