Only Angela Merkel can save David Cameron now

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[/audioplayer]British politicians still prize a visit from the President of the United States above all others. Yet no American President has been as important to a British Prime Minister, in domestic political terms, as the German Chancellor is to David Cameron. Angela Merkel is the person who can both help him keep his party together as it approaches the next election and then, with luck, deliver his promised renegotiation of Britain’s EU membership. For Cameron, Merkel — far more than Barack Obama — is the indispensable ally.

When Merkel comes to London next week, Cameron will roll out every available inch of red carpet. Though she’s here for just a day, she’ll address both houses of Parliament and meet the Queen.

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All the buttering up serves a purpose. No. 10 is confident that Merkel will use this trip to offer some encouragement to Cameron’s renegotiation agenda. One source involved with the visit says, ‘She knows everyone will be analysing her words, she is coming to be helpful. She has gone out of her way to ease the path for the PM.’

Support from Merkel is crucial because her word carries more weight in Europe than anyone else’s. The eurozone crisis has confirmed that the Franco-German partnership is not one of equals. Germany, with the biggest economy and the deepest pockets, is the dominant force in the European Union. As one Foreign Office figure puts it, ‘In today’s Europe, you can’t change things unless Germany is with you.’ Even if Britain were to leave the EU, Merkel and Germany would determine the exit terms.

If Cameron can show that Merkel is at least sympathetic to his renegotiation plan, he’ll be able to credibly claim that his strategy has a chance.