I’m kicking myself because back in 2011 or 2012 Paddy Power gave me odds of 66/1 on Ukip topping the 2014 poll, which I chickened out of taking. It was perfectly likely that Ukip would win because their views on a range of subjects are close to the median British average, while the three main parties (or LIBLABCON as I call them when posting on messageboards under the name ‘Sword of Odin’) are often in a world of their own. But I also thought that the party brand could be made toxic by media exposure of its most extreme members, and great denunciations from the commentariat.
As it is Ukip’s support has ballooned so quickly that the almost daily revelations of its wackier members seem to make no difference. Maybe toxicity is not determined by press reports but the situation on the ground. If a third of voters in some regions are going Ukip, then the average politically-interested person is going to know quite a few openly Ukip-supporting people, and many of them are going to be normal, empathetic people.
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