All through the Covid-19 pandemic we have been hampered by a lack of data on just how many people have had the disease. Given that several studies have indicated that as many as 80 per cent of people who are infected show no symptoms whatsoever, it is extremely difficult to estimate this crucial figure – which determines the mortality rate of Covid-19 and also how far away we might be from achieving a position of herd immunity.
Today, however, comes some very substantial data. The Medical Research Council’s Biostatistics Unit has published estimates of infections derived from serological studies on samples collected from the NHS Blood Transfusion Service.
It estimates that between 4.9 million and 6.4 million people in England have antibodies showing they have already been infected. The median estimate is that ten per cent of the population of England have had the disease, varying from 17 per cent in London and 12 per cent in the North West, to seven per cent in the South East and four per cent in the South West.
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