Katja Hoyer Katja Hoyer

Olaf Scholz’s dreams of election victory are wishful thinking

Olaf Scholz (Credit: Getty images)

Three years ago today, Olaf Scholz was sworn in as Germany’s chancellor. He had narrowly won the election by presenting himself as Angela Merkel’s natural successor. Appearing as the continuity candidate was good enough to clinch it in 2021, but Scholz is unlikely to pull that off again in Germany’s snap election, expected to be held on 23 February next year.

Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) appears to have reached a nadir. Polls give it 15 or 16 per cent of the vote share, third place behind the centre-right CDU/CSU in first place and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in second. You’d have to go back to the 19th century to see a worse result for the SPD, Germany’s oldest party. It would be a disaster for them should it become a political reality at the ballot box.

Trying to ride a wave of Merkel nostalgia isn’t going to work this time around

Yet Scholz seems confident that he can turn things around.

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