OBR Watch

When Sir Alan Budd was head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, there was an insistent argument in opposition circles that the independent body was biased in favour of the coalition. Much of this cented around the OBR’s growth predictions. How on Earth, came the question, can growth hit 2.3 percent next year and 2.8 percent the year after? Isn’t that a bit optimistic in view of all the warnings about a double dip? Won’t the cuts stifle growth? And so on and so on.

A few months ago, I produced a graph which showed that, when compared to a range of independent forecasts, the OBR’s growth predictions weren’t really optimistic at all. But there was a caveat that I ‘fessed up to at the time: the independent growth forecasts I used (usefully collated by the Treasury here) were made before George Osborne’s Budget. So, in theory, all those forecasts could be wildly downgraded after the coalition’s cuts were confirmed – leaving the OBR’s own predictions looking, yep, too optimistic by contrast.