At the turn of the 20th century, an army of half a million Tommies imposed Britain’s will on the Boers, yet this nominal victory served chiefly to accelerate the downward spiral of British power. Foolishly attempting to recover its imperial holdings in Indochina after the second world war, France succeeded only in showing how weak it had become. In 1979, the seemingly mighty Red Army marched to folly in Afghanistan; within a decade the Soviet Empire disintegrated.
Now comes the United States, seemingly intent on reprising the Russian experience, with Barack Obama — ironically, unexpectedly, perhaps even against his better judgment — serving as chief enabler. Once again, an inability to discriminate compounds and exacerbates the challenges of a nation in decline.
A mere decade ago, almost no one saw this coming. America’s claim to global mastery appeared unassailable. The smart talk was all about the ‘sole superpower’ lighting the way toward ‘the end of history’. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush acted as if America knew no bounds. For the most part, Clinton got away with this conceit. Bush was not so lucky. His eight years in office exposed hitherto concealed American vulnerabilities, both military and economic. Meanwhile, Bush and his team demonstrated an appalling inability either to anticipate what was coming or to respond effectively once problems appeared.
Whereas Bush sought to eliminate terrorism by pursuing his ‘freedom agenda’ (liberty imposed at the point of a bayonet), Obama has demonstrated an inclination to consult, engage in give-and-take, and make room for issues to which Bush gave short shrift. Yet for all these differences, there is one matter in which Obama stubbornly cleaves to the course set by his predecessor. Step by inexorable step he has taken the United States (its allies trailing reluctantly behind) ever more deeply into the vortex of Afghanistan.
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