Number 10 should fear a Welsh nationalist coalition

As Disraeli’s famous maxim goes: England does not love coalitions. In Wales, by contrast, we can’t get enough of them. Throughout the devolved era deal-making has created and sustained governments, including the current Labour-led administration – backed by the sole remaining Senedd member for the Liberal Democrats, Kirsty Williams, and the independent statesman Lord Elis-Thomas.

After the votes are counted in next month’s Welsh election, history looks likely to repeat itself. A slurry of recent opinion polls project various outcomes on May 7 but none suggest an outright majority for any party. The latest Welsh Political Barometer, the most tested poll for identifying long-term trends in Wales, now suggests that compromise and pragmatism will be necessary to form the next administration.

Its findings show an improvement in Welsh Labour’s fortunes, with First Minister Mark Drakeford’s party set to claim 26 seats. Although initially riding the wave of the vaccine rollout, the Welsh Conservative Senedd group are predicted to boast a modest 14 members as Plaid Cymru overtake them to become the official opposition party with 17 nationalists in Cardiff Bay.