No time to tinker

Next week, the Institute of Directors and the Taxpayers’ Alliance will release what I humbly suggest will be the most powerful summary of the case for radical supply-side reform in a generation. The report of the 2020 Tax Commission runs to 417 pages, choc full of academic literature showing how big government chokes growth, and looking at what the optimal size of the state is. Broadly speaking, government spending is about half the size of economic output now and the optimal size is about a third. The recommendations are not being released until Monday, but it opens a very timely debate, which I preview in my Telegraph column. Here are my main points.

1. There is no recovery in sight. Independent forecasts for 2015 are coming in, showing there will be no economic recovery to speak of. RPI inflation will be high, unemployment nowhere near pre-crash levels. But here’s what’s really striking: after five years of talking about cutting the deficit, the UK is forecast to have a deficit of 5 per cent of GDP — which would then be the highest in the Western world according to IMF forecasts:

2.