No matter what Brexit position it has – Labour is screwed 

No matter what Labour decides to do with regard to a second referendum next week, as things stand it will lose seats. And as a party which has lost half its vote share in a little over six months, it shouldn’t expect to have any target seats, just defensive positions.

Before I explain why, I would like to make the following assumptions:

Assumption 1: all things being equal, the current polling position stays where it is. It could all change next week. Anyone care to predict? No, neither do I. I can only work from what’s in front of me and calculate from there. If things change, I’ll change.

Assumption 2: If Labour chooses to advocate for a second referendum and Remain, it will have a messenger in Jeremy Corbyn with about the worst approval rating in living memory. Appending a difficult message to such a messenger is problematic. Should we assume people will swallow what he and Labour say? Particularly given that they have had two years of triangulation and constructive ambiguity.