Backbenchers are discussing when to give Downing Street a bloody nose, a former prime minister is on the warpath and the government is fighting on multiple fronts. All of this is contributing to the heated atmosphere at Westminster. But one thing is keeping Tory tempers in check: the party’s poll lead.
As long as the government is ahead in the polls, it is hard to declare that it is in crisis. This lead also limits the frustration of Tory MPs. You can’t claim that this or that event will lead to the Conservatives losing the next election when the opposition are still behind.
Why are the Tories still ahead despite such a torrid summer? To one of those involved with the Tories’ 2019 election victory, the answer is obvious: the party has a core vote of 30 per cent, to which it has added another 10 per cent who are Brexit enthusiasts.
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