Imagine that we find out on May 6th next year that the Liberal Democrats have taken a pasting in the Scottish Parliament elections, done badly in the Welsh Assembly ones, lost seats in English local government and AV has been defeated. In these circumstances, Nick Clegg would face loud and sustained calls from within his own party to quit the government. Charlie Kennedy’s warning would have come true.
It would be situation critical for the Coalition. For this reason, I suspect that David Cameron wouldn’t shed any tears if the AV referendum passed.
As I write in the Mail on Sunday, Number 10 has moved to install Rodney Leach, of Business for Sterling and No campaign fame, at the top of the save first past the post campaign. Leach is loyal to Cameron, he worked hard to reassure Euro-sceptics about Cameron and to stop any explosion over Cameron’s acceptance of the Lisbon Treaty.
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