Will there be a Portillo moment on election night with any of the party leaders? Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage are two most likely leaders to lose and Lord Ashcroft has polled Sheffield Hallam and South Thanet to find out how safe the Lib Dem and Ukip leaders are. As the chart above shows, Farage and Clegg are still in very tight races. In Sheffield Hallam, Labour is now just one point ahead of the Lib Dems — compared to a three point lead in November last year.
In South Thanet, Ashcroft puts Ukip two points behind the Tories, compared to a one point lead in November 2014. Although the two parties are battling for first place, Labour is drifting into third. As I’ve discussed before, whether Farage wins this seat depends on what happens to the ‘anyone but Farage vote’. If these voters rally behind the Tories, as Ashcroft’s poll suggests is happening, he faces more of a battle to win.
These seats are both highly contested.
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