Nicola Sturgeon’s threat of Indyref2 could save the Scottish Tories

In the village of Waterfoot on the outskirts of Glasgow, a lady in her thirties is explaining to her local Conservative MP, Paul Masterton, why he has her vote. It can’t exactly be described as complimentary. ‘We were talking about this the other night. Corbyn’s an absolute clown and Nicola’s just horrific so… I don’t want to say the best of a bad bunch…’ Masterton chips in before things get awkward: ‘Don’t worry. I’ve heard lots of phrases said on the door. “Best of a bad bunch” would be acceptable.’

His seat, East Renfrewshire, was a Scottish Tory stronghold before the party’s 1997 wipeout. When Boris Johnson called the general election, many expected another implosion — especially after the unexpected retirement of Ruth Davidson, who had done so much to restore the party’s fortunes in Scotland. East Renfrewshire was down as a likely Tory loss, given its status as one of the most pro-Remain seats in the country.