There’s only a year to go until the most complex and consequential US presidential election ever. Ukraine, the Middle East, geriatric candidates, big-name independents, the criminal charges against Trump, a new House speaker (who must ratify the outcome) who didn’t recognise Biden’s victory in 2020 – the complexity is staggering.
The two main candidates, Biden and Trump, are both unpopular. Biden’s approval rating stands (or rather, squats) at around 37 per cent. Polls indicate he is losing support among two traditional bastions of the Democratic party: African-Americans and young voters. Meanwhile Trump, who has still to secure the Republican nomination, lost the popular vote in his two presidential campaigns. In last year’s midterms, the Trumpist candidates were routed.
Dissatisfaction with Biden and Trump is providing a big opportunity for independents. In 2016, low-profile independents helped Trump win the decisive Midwestern states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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