New report reveals urgent need to address root causes of the cancer backlog

One of the biggest challenges facing the NHS pre-pandemic was workforce resilience. New analysis we have commissioned at Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) shows this issue is more pressing than ever.

The analysis, carried out by the Office of Health Economics and presented in our landmark report, finds that if activity within cancer services across the UK were to increase by 2.5% compared with pre-pandemic levels, clearing the backlog could take almost a decade in some parts of the country.^[1]

Even if activity were to increase by 10% – an almost impossible ask given that staff have been stretched to breaking point by Covid-19 – it would still take years to clear the backlog.^[1]

These issues are not new, but they have been exacerbated by the pandemic. As of March 2020, just 54% of patients in Northern Ireland were being treated within the two-month target for a cancer referral^[2]. In Wales, that figure was still below target at 78.8% and the situation was not much better in Scotland and England.^[1],^[3] This translates into worse outcomes for cancer patients, with the UK ranking below international comparators.^[4]

Our report goes on to warn that a failure to understand fully the drivers of these challenges, including the workforce crisis and its direct correlation to patient outcomes, could result in patient safety being put at risk. Even if the workforce were to remain constant, the patient-to-doctor ratio would have to increase by 4.5% relative to 2020 for 12 months to clear the cancer backlog in England.^[1] For clinical nurse specialists specifically, this ratio would have to increase by 7.8% – meaning another patient for every already overstretched nurse.^[1]

At BMS, we have joined forces with Macmillan Cancer Support to tackle some of these longstanding challenges by developing a workforce forecasting tool. Together, we hope to provide actionable insights for local health systems – enabling them to predict where demand in an ever-evolving cancer treatment landscape is likely to be in the future and ensuring there are the right skills at the right level to meet the needs of cancer patients, no matter where they live.

Our report concludes with a series of recommendations which consist of immediate investment in the cancer workforce and the use of insights generated by this workforce tool to predict future requirements.

The current crisis will only get worse unless radical action is taken. Governments and health systems must work with the life sciences industry to understand truly the root causes of the cancer backlog and scale up successful innovations to improve capacity. By doing so, policymakers have an extraordinary opportunity in forthcoming cancer strategies to make transformative, forward thinking, and ambitious change.

ONC-GB-2200760 November 2022

*Read the report produced by BMS and OHE here (please note that clicking on this link will take you to Bristol Myers Squibb’s website).

^[1] BMS (2022). ‘Transforming cancer outcomes in the UK: Clearing the backlog, improving capacity and building services for tomorrow’. Available at: https://www.bms.com/gb/about-us/transforming-cancer-outcomes-in-the-uk-clearing-the-backlog-improving-capacity-and-building-services-for-tomorrow.html. [Accessed: November 2022].

^[2] Health NI (2022). ‘Northern Ireland Waiting Time Statistics: Cancer Waiting Times July – September 2021’. Available at: https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/health/hs-niwts-cancer-waiting-times-q2-21-22.pdf. [Accessed: November 2022].

^[3] Welsh Government (2021). ‘Patients Newly Diagnosed via the Urgent Suspected Cancer Route Starting Treatment by Month’. Available at: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Health-and-Social-Care/NHS-Hospital-Waiting-Times/Cancer-Waiting-Times/Monthly/pre-February-2021/patientsnewlydiagnosedviatheurgentsuspectedcancerroutestartingtreatment-by-month [Accessed November 2022].

^[4] Nuffield Trust (2021). ‘Cancer Survival Rates’. Available at: https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/cancer-survival-rates [Accessed: November 2022].