Poll shows Khan’s lead slashed in London

Could Labour really lose London? A new poll out today shows that Sadiq Khan’s lead over Susan Hall is down to just ten points, ahead of the capital’s voters going to the polls tomorrow. The survey from Savanta for the Centre for London gives Khan 42 per cent of the vote, followed by Hall on 32 per cent and then Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie in third with 10 per cent. It points to the race tightening, with Khan’s lead dropping three points since the last Savanta poll. The findings are a striking contrast with a separate YouGov poll which gives Khan a massive 22-point lead.

How best to explain this split? One leading pollster admits that their peers ‘are very nervous about London’. They question whether the samples used in some mayoral polls have enough voters who backed Shaun Bailey in the last contest in 2021. There is also a clear enthusiasm gap, with Susan Hall’s smaller pool of voters more fired up than Sadiq Khan’s larger base.