Has the SNP threat to Labour in Scotland abated? Not yet according to Lord Ashcroft, who has released his latest round of constituency level polling. Focusing on the SNP/Labour marginals, Ashcroft has found that in five current Labour strongholds, the SNP are on track to swipe away four of them: Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh South West and Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath — the latter of course being represented by Gordon Brown. The only good news for Labour is East Renfrewshire, where Labour has a one-point lead. Thankfully for the party, it’s their leader Jim Murphy’s seat.
In the single Conservative Scottish seat, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, the Tories are neck and neck with the SNP. The two Lib Dem seats the peer polled — Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine and Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charles Kennedy’s perch in the Highlands) — have both switched to the SNP. Aside from Dumfriesshire, there is a minimum of 20 per cent swing to the SNP in these marginals, even reaching the heights of 29 per cent in Kirkcaldy.
At an event in Westminster this evening, where Ashcroft released and discussed the polling, he outlined how a 10 per cent swing in May to the SNP would lead to two seats change hands.
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