It’s a familiar theme: the Tory conference is approaching, David Cameron is in trouble and knives are coming out for him. But how much of the problems are of his own making, and how many have come from the Treasury? Tim Montgomerie focuses today on No.10 (£), saying that Prime Minister must come out fighting for his own survival:
‘Gay marriage is only the latest issue that is beginning to create the dangerous impression that Mr Cameron is smaller than the events, factions and tides of public opinion that swirl around his Government. The Prime Minister is no longer seen as his own man. People wonder if he’s in command of his own destiny, let alone the nation’s.
He can’t cure our economic ills because everything Britain does is overshadowed by the eurozone. He can’t deliver the crime and deregulatory policies that he promised because the Liberal Democrats won’t let him. He can’t deliver Lords reform because of mutinous Tory backbenches. He hoped for a golden moment in the Olympic sun but was completely eclipsed by Boris Johnson.’
None of this would matter if the economy was recovering. But voters don’t see a recovery, and like every failing relationship they start to criticise little things that the Prime Minister does. Yesterday’s polling suggested that two thirds of voters believe the coalition (ie, the Chancellor) is managing the economy badly and over three quarters think that the British economy remains in a bad state. This places Cameron’s core headache squarely with George Osborne.
Ever since Cameron ran for leader of the Conservative Party in 2005, both himself and Osborne have been keen to avoid comparisons with Blair and Brown. In fact, the difference is that Osborne and Cameron are even harder to distinguish. They are a unit: Cameron in 2005 decided to keep his friend as Shadow Chancellor and keep him there after the crash. It was one of the biggest calls of his premiership.
It remains a controversial decision. The public remain just as unhappy with the the Prime Minister’s choice of Chancellor as with the government’s economic record. Yesterday, 57 per cent said he is doing a bad job (up two points from July) and 54 per cent think he should be replaced as Chancellor (also up two points). Although his approval ratings remain better than the Prime Minister’s, the dislike for the Chancellor has long been on the rise.
It remains to be seen if Lynton Crosby, the Australian strategist behind Boris’s two victories, will take over from Osborne in 2015. Our own Melissa Kite reported in the Mail yesterday that Crosby remains undecided whether to take on the job, if it means war with the Chancellor.
Some think Osborne now has less than six months left to turn the economy around. Perhaps he will do so, and the two of them will have a triumphant second term. But if Osborne fails, he and Cameron will fall together. More than any Prime Minister and Chancellor of recent times, they come as a unit. The praise, and criticism, should be directed at both.
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