The latest immigration figures published by the ONS today, for the calendar year 2011, show net migration falling for the first time under the coalition – but nowhere near fast enough to give ministers confidence that they will hit their target by 2015.
The ONS estimates that immigration last year fell by 25,000, and emigration rose by 11,000, resulting in a drop in net migration of 36,000 – from 252,000 to 216,000. This is in line with my earlier prediction, though the ONS warn that the fall is not statistically significant, and the target of 100,000 still looks a long way away.
It is worth noting that despite ministers’ rhetoric, by far the largest contribution to the fall is due to the comings and goings of British citizens: British net migration was down by 28,000, while by comparison net migration from outside the EU was down by only 13,000 – and EU net migration actually rose by a few thousand.
In terms of the different kinds of migration, the figures show numbers of overseas students falling for the first time in several years – the first visible effects of the coalition’s policy changes in this area – while numbers of working migrants have continued their steady decline since 2007.
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