Neither Ukraine nor Russia can win the war

While Russia has agreed to pull back its troops from Kyiv, the signs of a wider breakthrough in peace talks are far from promising. Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba insists that his country will not trade ‘people, land, or sovereignty’; and the US state department believes Russia too is unlikely to make compromises. Yet while striking a negotiated settlement might seem to be against the odds, this outcome remains the best hope for Ukraine.

Outright victory is not an obvious possibility for either party to the conflict. The Russian advance has stalled, and the army lacks the troops for a full occupation. Ukrainian forces lack the ability to force Russia to withdraw from its country. Neither side appears sufficiently exhausted by the conflict to simply give up. Leaving the war as a frozen conflict – breakaway provinces occupied by Russian forces, a long line of separation, and no formal end to fighting – is very possible.