Myanmar is on the brink of civil war

For more than two months now Myanmar has been convulsed by a burgeoning civil war. The confrontation between the country’s military and large parts of the country has little prospect of an early resolution unless China and Russia withdraw their support for the junta, which jettisoned a five-year power-sharing arrangement with Aung San Suu Kyi’s party.

The country’s armed forces evicted the National League for Democracy from office in February but have failed to consolidate the coup d’etat. The younger generation of Myanmarese have tasted a decade of democracy and freedom — they show little sign of buckling. The men in uniform ruled oppressively from 1962 for nearly half a century, seeing off challenges to their brutal authority. The Burmese people seem unwilling to submit once more.

Gautam Mukhopadhaya, India’s former ambassador to Myanmar, observes: ‘The resistance will mutate but continue, shift to the countryside or neighbouring countries, turn to armed resistance or conflict or a digital struggle… But the Tatmadaw [military] will not prevail.