Charles Moore Charles Moore

My prediction for the next general election

issue 09 September 2023

My long-standing theory of British general election results is that they are all deserved. This is true not just of big victories e.g. Labour in 1945 and 1997, the Conservatives in 1979 and 2019, but also of no-score draws, such as the two elections of 1974. In our system (though first-past-the-past sometimes exaggerates) the voters are, collectively, always right. Dare I turn this retrospective rule into a prediction? If I did, I would say that the Tories now deserve to lose, but that Labour does not deserve to win. Logic therefore demands a Labour lead but no overall majority.

Small British charities and voluntary groups are doing such good work in Ukraine, but being discouraged, and sometimes refused charitable status, by the Charity Commission. The Commission seems to have an ingrained preference for the charity ‘big boys’. It does not appreciate that little charities are much less self-protective in danger zones, thus reaching those in real trouble more quickly.

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