The future of Egypt has been hanging in the balance since Hosni Mubarak was toppled. Now
there is real cause for concern, as scores of protesters clash with state security forces.
The problem, above all, is military overreach. Stuck in a 1960s view of itself, and keen to preserve their money, status and power, the military has been thwarting the process of change. Since Mubarak’s fall they have continued behaving how they always have and worse — arresting protesters, muttering about US-led conspiracies, demanding extra-constitutional rights and clamping down on dissent.
Worst of all, the West has been all to willing to take them at their word. Especially the Obama administration, which has kept up the US habit of cooperating with the generals, and is fearful of the electoral success of the Islamists.
But the Supreme Council of the Armed Force’s overreach is now backfiring for everyone, including the civilian interim government of Essam Sharif which last night offered to stand down en masse. If the military had just helped the transition along, they could have kept much more of their economic and even political power, wielding it behind the scenes as a safeguard against any undemocratic putsch by the Islamists. In time, as Egypt stabilised, their power could be reined in, much as in Turkey. Now, because of their undemocratic behaviour, their power is up for discussion as it wasn’t before.
Paradoxically, the military’s behaviour is now more likely to help the Islamists who can now portray themselves as defenders of democracy against a junta. The Muslim Brotherhood was always going to do well in the forthcoming elections but will face tremendous socio-economic challenges in government. Failing to deal with these would see their share of the vote drop in future elections, as has been the case for all Islamist parties elsewhere. However, being able to argue that the reason for their failure is because of their ongoing battle with the military is a godsend for the Brethren.
For these reasons, it is time for the West — the US, Britain and European governments — to be very clear with the Egyptian military, demanding that they back down and immediately stop their deadly standoff with the pro-democracy protesters. For Egypt’s sake.
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