A note leaked to the Times written by the EU’s deputy chief negotiator shows that the EU has no intention of releasing the UK from the customs union if May’s deal is signed.
This attitude should come as little surprise to those close to the deal. Throughout the process, the EU have wished to hamper the UK’s future trading relationships to ensure that Brexit does not set a precedent for other countries who might seek to leave.
But, in spite of this leaked memo, the EU will not be admitting their intentions in public any time soon. Quite the opposite. The political agreement that will be published alongside the withdrawal agreement will be full of overblown promises about a tailor-made trade deal. These words mean nothing, however, since the political statement about the future relationship carries no legal or contractual authority.
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has been very clear on the legally binding nature of the withdrawal agreement – there will be no changing it once it has been passed by the UK and the European Parliaments. But the same cannot be said of the Political Agreement which does not bind the EU to honour its contents in any way. The EU can therefore promise to give the UK a trade deal to rival all others, knowing that they will never actually have to deliver any of it; the statement will be nothing but hot air.
Theresa May will try to sell her deal to Cabinet on the solution it provides for the Irish border issue. The fact that this issue, which was scarcely mentioned during the referendum by either side, has become the main selling point of the deal shows the extent to which the EU has been able to dictate the terms of the negotiations.
Scant attention has been given by the government to UK-EU trade after our withdrawal. When the government has addressed trade, it has always been through the lens of the Irish border. This red herring has meant the government has missed a golden opportunity to use Britain’s £40 billion exit payment to secure from the EU a legally binding commitment to a trade deal. Without such a commitment, the EU will prevaricate endlessly on the deal in an attempt to make sure Britain feels the full consequences of its decision to leave.
Angela Merkel herself has said that ‘there always needs to be and there will be a difference between having membership of the EU and a partnership with the EU as a third party.’ In other words, the EU is determined to take every opportunity it can to remind Britain that it is now out in the cold.
Time will tell whether the Political Agreement lulls the cabinet and Parliament into a false sense of security. But MPs should be under no illusion about what the EU intends to do: say one thing and deliver another
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