Montgomerie’s Law & the Coalition’s Future

Tim Montgomerie makes a prediction:

Call it Montgomerie’s Law of the Coalition (launched in The Times (£)). This Coalition is heading for breakdown or it’s heading Leftwards. The Left of the Liberal Democrats will demand an end to the Coalition if Nick Clegg doesn’t get more and more concessions from David Cameron.

If the Coalition fails it will be broken by Liberal Democrats in left-leaning constituencies. Think Scotland, Wales, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Sheffield, Liverpool. Think Ming Campbell, Charles Kennedy, Simon Hughes.

Well, maybe. And, sure, the government is not likely to tilt to the right. But that doesn’t mean it can’t maintain its current, moderate course. Yes, that means there will be moments when the Tory leadership seems to be doing more than it absolutely must to protect the Liberal Democrats. But that’s what big brothers are supposed to do. It’s when the junior partner feels ignored or taken for granted that it begins to think about walking away from the deal.