Modelling coronavirus is an imperfect science

We don’t know if our model for estimating immigration into the United Kingdom works. It’s a long-standing dataset, produced by the Office for National Statistics – one of the best at what it does in the world. The model measures people entering and leaving the UK, something tracked at ports and airports. It’s a model of high political interest and concern. And despite all of that, we’re still not sure it’s good enough to be classed as a gold-standard ‘national statistic’.

In the modern era, almost any number we ‘know’ – be it population, immigration, unemployment, inflation, or GDP – is actually an estimate produced by complicated statistical modelling.

Coronavirus is no exception. The decisions currently being made by the UK government on our response to the virus, which have potentially seismic impacts, are being informed by advanced modelling.

Given we are dealing with a fast-moving disease, there are few other choices.