The third wave of Covid-19 may now be no more deadly than a typical wave of influenza (thanks to vaccines) but be in no doubt: the rise in cases is real, likely to continue for some time and may dwarf the second wave. It may still be safe to unlock against this backdrop, but this (very different) scenario would need properly explained, with self-isolation rules rewritten. The facts have changed, but the argument has not (yet) changed.
We’ve been tracking the emergence of the India/Delta variant on The Spectator’s data hub. The below is a summary of the likely direction of travel. It has taken the UK from having the lowest Covid case levels in Europe to having the highest in just a few weeks – with much more still to come.
Cases may not cause serious illness, but they will cause serious disruption – given the NHS policy of asking everyone’s contacts to self-isolate (even if they are double-jabbed or have recovery immunity).
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