Mike Pompeo is the dark horse in the Republican race

The race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination began in earnest on 9 November 2022 — and it could prove far more competitive than many people think. Baked into the thinking of virtually every centre-right commentator, consultant and grifter is the assumption that former president Donald J. Trump will be the nominee. Only Trump opponents and conservative sceptics are even interested in the possibility that someone else will be the choice — and they have largely coalesced around the idea that the sole candidate who could beat the most Florida Man is another Florida Man: governor Ron DeSantis. Some assume that DeSantis will not challenge Trump, and that if he does, it will be a fool’s errand that splits the populist majority of the party and faces challenging odds against a former president.

Yet history suggests it is wrong to conclude that these are the GOP’s only viable options. Conceding that the two Florida Men loom over the rest of the potential field does not mean this field won’t exist.