Might Macron lose to Le Pen?

The latest French opinion poll puts Marine Le Pen on around 26 per cent, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron on 23 per cent when it comes to voting intention for the 2022 presidential race. This reverses Macron’s 2017 first-round score of 24 per cent and Le Pen on 21.3 per cent. Of course, Macron won the second round convincingly with 66.1 per cent because mainstream voters could not bring themselves to vote for Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. So does this poll change the outlook for the elections in 16 months?

Ever since Macron’s presidential victory, polls have consistently shown a second-round run-off between Macron and Le Pen. The French left remains ignominiously divided, with no candidate on more than 10 or 11 per cent (Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise) and the traditional right still lacks a consensus candidate, none of whom garner more than 16 points in the polls (Xavier Bertrand). A second-round run-off between the two 2017 rivals looks certain.