Ross Clark Ross Clark

Who will survive to lead the Tories?

(Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)

In spite of his conviction for falsifying business records, Donald Trump is still expected by many to make a remarkable political comeback in November’s US election. Could we see an equally remarkable comeback this side of the Atlantic, too, with Liz Truss returning to the stand for the leadership of the Conservative party?

It’s possible to see a scenario where Truss is one of the few hopefuls remaining

Today’s Electoral Calculus poll predicting that the Conservatives could be reduced to just 66 seats on 4 July raises the question: who would still be around to lead the party after the almost certain resignation of Rishi Sunak? Electoral Calculus’s model is at the bleakest end of predictions – it envisages Labour with 519 seats and a majority of 320 – but its analysis also stands out in that it offers a seat-by-seat prediction. This allows us to look at a Tory leadership contest in the context of who may survive.

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