Might a Tory defeat in 2024 be something to celebrate?

When a party’s own natural supporters decide they have good reason to turn against it then the writing is normally on the wall. Things, though, are rather worse than that for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives: Tory-leaning voters would now seem to have not one but two good arguments for hoping the party loses next year’s general election.

The first reason is obvious. There is a stone-cold fury at the multiple betrayals, losses of nerve, defenestrations and incompetent U-turns that have taken place since the sweet victory of December 2019 – and an ensuing wish to take revenge. 

But the second is potentially more deadly still. There is a growing logical and reasoned case for anyone who wishes to see Britain heading in an avowedly Conservative direction to yearn for a Tory defeat in 2024.

To illustrate why, just ask yourself what the best achievable Tory performance on polling day would look like given the party’s precarious current polling position and the difficult political and economic outlook facing the government.