The European elections were a gift for Britain’s two new political parties, Change UK and the Brexit party. But only the latter seized the opportunity.
Change UK have had myriad problems. They have been unable to settle on a name and a logo. Their MPs, exiles from the two main parties, have struggled to understand how minor parties get noticed. But the biggest problem seems to be that their strategy almost assumes Brexit has happened: how else to explain their failure to propose some kind of Remain alliance for this contest? In order to get lift-off, Change UK need Labour to have ‘betrayed’ Remain voters. But the Labour leadership has consistently tacked towards a second referendum to avoid a full-on breach with its Remain base.
The election results will polarise the Brexit debate further. The Brexit party’s success will be seen by many, including a sizable chunk of Tory MPs, as proof the public want a no-deal Brexit. This makes Tory MPs even less inclined to go along with the concessions Theresa May is offering Labour MPs in her attempt to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through. But it is worth remembering that the Tories’ poll numbers held up while May was trying to pass her deal, then plummeted after she opted for a Brexit delay.
On the other side of the House, the success of the Liberal Democrats and the Greens will be cited by Labour MPs as proof the party is paying a price for its Brexit ambiguity. These MPs will argue that their party must now back a second referendum in all circumstances; a position that Jeremy Corbyn inched towards this week. The Labour leadership knows that whatever its doubts about this policy, it will become the party’s position at its conference in September.
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