Theresa May will soon arrive in Brussels with a series of unlikely demands. She must tell the European Union that she wants to re-open a deal that she was hailing as not just the best, but the ‘only deal possible’ a few weeks ago. Parliament has now made her eat her words. It is a testament to her predicament that this counts as a triumph for her.
She has narrowly avoided a far worse fate. Had parliament voted another way — rejecting Graham Brady’s amendment and passing Yvette Cooper’s — she would have been sent into the negotiating chamber with nothing to say. She wouldn’t have been able to tell the EU what the Commons wanted. She wouldn’t have been able to ask for anything — and the EU would have known that she’d soon be sent back to Brussels by parliament to ask for an extension to Article 50.
At the start of this week, it seemed likely that parliament would further weaken May’s negotiating position. In the event, all such plans were voted down by MPs. At the same time, parliament voted that it would approve the withdrawal agreement if the backstop was replaced with ‘alternative arrangements’.
Her new instructions from parliament come from an amendment by Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs. It says the House would support her Brexit deal if the so-called backstop is replaced with alternative arrangements to prevent a hard border with Northern Ireland. This leaves the Prime Minister in a stronger position than anyone would have expected — especially after her 230-vote defeat on the withdrawal agreement a fortnight ago. Then, Brussels was quick to say that this proved the backstop wasn’t the only problem and the scale of the defeat showed that May needed to soften Brexit to get it through.
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