Just about anyone, except it seems for the Bank of England’s forecasting department, could have seen this one coming. When the Bank’s Governor Mark Carney decided to bundle a stack of fresh data on the state of the economy into a single ‘Super Thursday’ package released every three months, someone could have checked the calendar and pointed out that the second one would fall on Bonfire Night. The jokes about expecting fireworks, followed by the tweets about damp squibs, were always inevitable. At the very least, they could have started a month later, and avoided that round of jokes.
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Forecasting, however, has been a weak spot of the Bank’s in recent years. Under Carney, it has turned out to be no better at working out what is going on with the economy than under his predecessors.
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