Macron’s ‘civil war’ warning might be closer to reality than he realises

Of the 20 or so opinion polls since France’s president Emmanuel Macron announced a snap election this month, the vast majority put Marine Le Pen’s right-wing party ahead. The Rassemblement National and its allies are predicted to get around 35 per cent of the vote, with the left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) on 29 per cent and Macron’s centrist coalition Ensemble pour la République trailing on 20 per cent. Barring a black swan moment, Jordan Bardella’s RN will win the most seats in the chamber. But no one party is likely to have an absolute majority. Bardella announced on 18 June that, without a working majority, he will turn down the premiership, which he has every constitutional right to do. What will happen next?

Pollsters predict that the RN will be some 30 seats short of an absolute majority. Bardella’s announcement, backed by the party’s vice-president, indicates that the RN expects no favours in governing the country.