Macron’s posturing as a global statesman will get him re-elected

It is bordering on tasteless amidst the horror of war in Europe to question the political impact of the conflict on the first round of the French presidential election in 44 days. But it’s naïve to imagine that such thoughts are not occurring to the politicians themselves, not least Emmanuel Macron.

As I write this on Friday, Macron has still to declare his candidacy for the presidency. He’s been letting his opponents on the right and left fight it out amongst themselves for as long as possible.

He could declare tomorrow at the Salon d’Agriculture, where he is scheduled to make the customary presidential appearance. Or maybe not. Macron has preferred to campaign as president, not candidate, and the war gives him an ideal opportunity to divert attention from his presidential record, which isn’t great. He can do what he likes doing best – adopt the posture of global statesman. He can present himself as seeking to calm Vladimir Putin and standing well above the fray of domestic politics.