Lord Ashcroft’s final marginal polling shows how tight the election remains

Lord Ashcroft has released his final marginal polls before the election, looking at ten marginal seats in England and Scotland. The Tories are set to hold onto four key marginals: Battersea, Croydon Central, Pudsey and Stourbridge. In Croydon Central, Ashcroft has found significant movement towards the Tories: last October, there was a six point Labour lead, which shrunk to a four point lead in March and has now turned into a four point Conservative lead. This movement is thanks to a decline in the Ukip vote share, which has dropped nine points since October.

There’s also good news for the employment minister Esther McVey in Wirral West. The Tories are very keen to hold onto their only seat on Merseyside and the Tories have reduced Labour’s lead from five to three points over the last month — again thanks to a fall in Ukip support. But the Tories are still locked in a tight battle in Norwich North, where the candidate is the former Treasury minister Chloe Smith.