Sometimes if you fear something intensely or hate something very strongly, it can cloud your otherwise excellent judgement and analytical foresight. That seems to be happening to many euro-sceptics when they talk or think about the Lisbon Treaty and the forthcoming second Irish referendum. They do not like the treaty and so will find it almost unthinkable that the Irish will vote yes. But a ‘yes’ vote looks like the most likely scenario.
That will mean that the British Conservatives have to be less mealy-mouthed about their post-referendum strategy; if the treaty is ratified will they try to re-open the document if they win power or let sleeping dogs lie? The answer will in many ways determine the relationship between a future Conservative prime minister and particularly his German and French counterparts, but also his relationship with the Tories’ eurosceptic “base”.
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