Like the Olympic medals table, GDP figures tell only part of the story

A ‘triple dip’ sounds like a move that might defeat a drug-pumped Olympic gymnast, but it’s what some City pundits now expect the UK economy to perform. After a 0.7 per cent drop in GDP between April and June — the third consecutive quarter of the double-dip recession — a ‘technical bounce’ should make the rest of the year look relatively healthy. But continuing chaos in the eurozone combined with a stalled US recovery, a slowdown in China and whatever happens next in the vicinity of Iran and Syria could make everything go pear-shaped again in 2013. And that’s really as much detail as you need on this topic, because if there’s one thing  we’ve learned over the past five years, it is that, by and large, economic forecasting is baloney.

Indeed, the more detailed and authoritative the forecast — most especially when it comes from the Office for Budget Responsibility — the higher the chance it will turn out to be a load of old cobblers.