Most of my friends are still on a cloud of post-election euphoria. There is one exception: those involved with opinion-polling. They have all the conversational self-confidence of a director of the Royal Bank of Scotland, circa Christmas 2008. I have tried to cheer them up, because there are explanations for the polls’ systemic failure.
Most of those involved in politics, including pollsters, are partisan and obsessive. They can remember how they voted in that Little Piddleton parish council by-election 20 years ago. Ordinary people — no, that sounds patronising — real people: that is not right either. Politicos, though odd, are real. But sensible people do not spend all their time thinking about politics. They are wondering what to have for supper, where to go on holiday. They are worrying about their children’s progress at school. Then a pollster breaks in on them. So they politely turn their attention to lesser matters.
Why does their response understate the eventual Tory vote? Tories cheered when Ed Miliband posed next to the stone of undestiny. We all thought: the Sheffield rally as sculpture. ‘My name is Ozymilipede, geek of geeks. Look on my works, ye mighty, and laugh.’ The polls still did not move, ‘shy Tories’ is one explanation. Peter Mandelson offered another, a couple of weeks before polling day. He said that people did not like the Tory party or its leader. They did not trust the Labour party or its leader. Dislike might colour the response to opinion poll queries. But in the realism of the polling booth, distrust would prevail.
Tony Blair once said that his planned transformation of Labour into New Labour would not be complete until the party had learned to love Peter Mandelson. That remains work in progress.
Comments
Join the debate for just £1 a month
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for £3.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just £1 a monthAlready a subscriber? Log in