Leo Varadkar’s days were numbered

Leo Varadkar’s abrupt resignation today left even his closest allies perplexed. ‘I was very surprised, I didn’t expect it at all’, said his deputy, Micheal Martin, after the announcement. Varadkar said he’s stepping down for reasons that were ‘both personal and political’, to give Fine Gael the best chance of victory. So what made him walk?

Varadkar may have thought he was continuing a decades-long progressive trend where liberal Irish governments had the wind at their backs. Divorce and same-sex marriage were legalised after successful referendums, and most recently, a ban on abortions was repealed. Ireland was shedding the small-c conservative, Roman Catholic principles on which it was founded. And at an astonishing speed.

But like a gambler unable to quit while he’s ahead, Varadkar – already on shaky electoral ground over his experiment with open borders – pushed the chips back in for another spin of the wheel by calling a double referendum to ‘modernise’ Ireland’s constitution with two amendments.