Labour’s reality check

Rishi Sunak goes into the summer holidays in the same position he began the year: 20 points behind in the polls. In other ways it feels as if his premiership has gone backwards. Mortgage rates have risen above the levels they were under Liz Truss. The Tory psychodrama of the Boris Johnson era has led to two of the three by-elections taking place this week. Little progress has been made on Sunak’s ‘five priorities’ – the junior doctor strikes show no sign of abating and the Rwanda scheme is held up in the courts. ‘At this point Keir Starmer could probably announce backing for freedom of movement and still scrape in,’ says one downbeat minister.

The by-elections this week – in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton and Frome – are adding to a sense of impending doom. ‘One was sparked by a Tory MP taking cocaine so we probably deserve it,’ says a government adviser anticipating defeat.