Labour triumph in West Lancashire by-election

Labour last night held the seat of West Lancashire on a ten-point swing from the Tories. The constituency has gone red since 1992 and was mostly recently represented by Rosie Cooper, who chose to resign to become chair of the Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust. Turnout was just over 31 per cent, with Labour winning with 62 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives on 25 per cent.

It is a cliche, but perhaps the most surprising thing about this result is how unsurprising it is. The result was within less than half a per cent of national polling trends: currently Labour are on course to win a three figure majority that surpasses their 1997 result. The Reform party did better than expectations, taking 4.4 per cent and third place in the process, which perhaps indicates a hitherto unrealised threat to the Tories from the right. It’s the worst result for the Conservatives in West Lancashire’s history.