In a famous Spectator article of 17 January 1964, Iain Macleod denounced the ‘magic circle’ of senior Conservatives who had engineered the succession of Lord Home as prime minister the year before. The Crown was obliged to follow the advice tendered by Harold Macmillan, Macleod concluded, ‘but the result of the methods used was contradiction and misrepresentation. I do not think it was a precedent that will be followed.’
He was right. Since the election of Edward Heath in 1965, every Tory leader, with the exception of Michael Howard in 2003, has been chosen in a full-blown democratic contest. Twice since Home, there has been a change of Prime Minister without a general election. But in both cases — James Callaghan in April 1976 and John Major in November 1990 — the new party leader and PM was chosen in an open contest.
It now appears quite probable that Gordon Brown will succeed Tony Blair this summer without a formal election.
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