Will Ukip make great gains in the Wythenshawe & Sale East by-election next week? According to the latest polling from Lord Ashcroft, the party has increased its vote share by 12 points since the last general election but are far off from winning. Labour is still very much on track to hold the seat, given a 17-point increase in their vote share:
Although Ukip has increased its vote share fivefold since 2010, it looks unlikely at this stage that the party will sweep through and take the seat. Despite rumours of shipping in a team from London to run the short campaign, they don’t appear to have made much of a mark on the ground. Under half of those polled said they had received leaflets through the door, 12 per cent had seen posters or billboards and only six per cent have received a knock on the door from Ukip.
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